An AI Overview 2025 (by the numbers)

TLDR: The AI landscape in 2025 shows Anthropic gaining significant enterprise market share while OpenAI faces challenges, with enterprise AI becoming a $37 billion market and Chinese open-source models showing strong adoption.

Summary:

As we enter 2026, the AI landscape shows significant shifts in market dynamics. Anthropic appears positioned for an incredible 2026, with enterprise AI growth driving market confidence that could result in a more impressive IPO than SpaceX or OpenAI. The enterprise AI market has reached $37 billion, making it the fastest-scaling category in software history, growing 3.2x year-over-year.

The competitive landscape is rapidly changing. Anthropic has captured 40% of enterprise LLM spend (up from 24% last year and 12% in 2023), surpassing OpenAI which has dropped to second place. This shift is particularly evident in the coding market, where Anthropic's Claude Code commands an estimated 54% market share compared to OpenAI's 21%. Claude Code has generated $1 billion in revenue for Anthropic just six months after launch, representing 20% of Anthropic's total 2025 revenue.

The enterprise market shows interesting patterns, with startups outcompeting incumbents in the application layer. Startups captured 63% of AI application revenue, earning nearly $2 for every $1 earned by incumbents. In specific domains, startups dominate: 71% in product and engineering, 78% in sales, and 91% in finance and operations.

However, the AI market also shows concerning bubble-like characteristics. Several high-profile AI startups have received multi-billion dollar valuations without even having products yet. Investors are piling into companies with no product, founders are raising $1-2B seed rounds on vibes, and debt is financing massive AI infrastructure before profits exist. If the AI bubble were to burst, it could wipe out $20 trillion in wealth held by American households.

For architects and teams, the data suggests focusing on enterprise applications where clear ROI can be demonstrated, particularly in coding and software engineering tasks where AI shows tangible improvements. The competitive dynamics also suggest that specialized, domain-focused AI solutions may outperform general-purpose models in enterprise settings.

Key takeaways:

Enterprise AI is now a $37 billion market, growing 3.2x year-over-year
Anthropic is outcompeting OpenAI in enterprise market share, particularly in coding applications
Startups are capturing majority of AI application revenue, outcompeting incumbents
Chinese open-source models (Qwen, DeepSeek, Moonshot) are showing strong adoption outside enterprise
AI bubble concerns include high valuations without products and debt-financed infrastructure
AI coding tools like Claude Code are generating significant revenue (billion-dollar figures)

Tradeoffs:

Enterprise AI growth comes at the cost of potential market instability due to inflated valuations
Open-source AI advancement may sacrifice the quality controls and safety measures of proprietary models

Link: An AI Overview 2025 (by the numbers)